Based on the most recent treasury data, our annualised budget deficit is expected to be of the order of 7.5 percent of GDP and the national debt-to-GDP ratio around 40 percent. While the looming budget deficit is large ? the last time we were at these levels was during the democratic transition phase of the early 1990s ? it takes place against the backdrop of a sound sovereign balance sheet. Further, with improving economic fundamentals the local situation is not as concerning as the global picture at this stage.
As intimated, western economies also have resorted to running their printing presses as a means to stimulate their ailing economies and fund government spending. By way of example, the US money supply has more than doubled in the past 18 months.
Given this scenario, the global investment landscape shows a heady cocktail of dire government finances combined with a ballooning in liquidity. This is likely to yield two outcomes: investor enthusiasm and price inflation. To boot, international interest rates are at or near zero percent which will also fuel investor sentiment. In this setting, it is hard to imagine the next asset bubble not forming.
Some evidence of this exuberance can be seen in the performance of global markets. The MCSI Emerging Markets Index rose 73 percent in dollar terms in 2009. By contrast, the JSE All Share Index posted a more 'modest' 29 percent rise last year in rand terms and 61 percent in dollar terms.
Another aspect to consider in this framework is that if countries are running fiscal deficits and price inflation is expected to follow from growing money supplies, these countries' currencies must come under threat. Safe havens such as cash provide no protection in such situations, so investors have to take refuge in non-cash assets.
Gold is a notable case in point (click here to read 'Gold's perfect storm'). But the gold market is not yet displaying signs of a bubble. Gold could rise further (even substantially so), but other commodities such as oil and platinum, which have a consumption use and not just a hording function, suggest a more sensible and less emotive set of assets in which to invest.
Go to page three for specific companies to invest in...

